The 21st century: the century of small and micro-states?

Abstract

Skepticism about the viability of small and micro-states has greatly decreased over the last decades. Still, small state studies have not sufficiently considered the emergence of new small states. In general terms, the aim of this study is to consider a future configuration of this world during the remainder of the 21st century and it concludes that we are evolving toward a world of small and micro-states. This predicted increase in the number of independent states is seen in relation to Alexander Wendt´s prediction of the emergence of a world state.

To reach this conclusion, questions were formulated that center around how and when small states are created. Examining generally accepted forms of new state creation in the 20th century leads to the conclusion that most forms create new smaller entities from previous larger ones. A close look also reveals that state creation can not be seen independently from changes in the international system. In this context, it is postulated that systemic changes provide windows of opportunity for aspiring new states.

In conclusion, it is demonstrated that a sizeable reservoir of new states exists. Instead of a speculative list of new states, five categories are identified as sources for new small(-er) states. In light of this work, the international community better start thinking about what possible effects an increased number of independent states with limited resources to conduct foreign policy can have.